A Bold Outlook for Nintendo’s Next Console
Nintendo is gearing up for success with the exciting launch of the Switch 2, and projections are already looking promising. The gaming titan expects to sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 by the end of the 2025/26 financial year, while targeting 45 million in software sales. If these numbers pan out, Nintendo is set for another substantial leap in gaming history.
This article dives into why analysts and investors are optimistic about the Switch 2’s market impact, exploring its expected reception, market positioning, and how it builds upon the Switch’s legacy.
Building on the Switch’s Legacy of Success
Launched in 2017, the original Nintendo Switch revolutionized gaming with its hybrid design, combining a home console with a portable gaming experience. This innovation resonated globally, leading to sales of over 125 million units to date and 1 billion+ software sales, making the Switch one of the best-selling consoles of all time.
However, the aging hardware has recently seen a dip in sales, with 10.8 million shipped in FY2025, a year-on-year decline of 31.2%. Enter the Switch 2, a successor designed to reignite momentum with advanced hardware, backward compatibility, and flagship exclusive games, such as Mario Kart World.
With a solid foundation to build upon, Nintendo is poised to bridge its legacy of best-selling consoles into its next era.
Why Analysts Are Expecting Strong Sales
Experts believe the Switch 2 could outperform its predecessor during its first year for three main reasons:
- Backwards Compatibility
The Switch 2 won’t just play new games; it will support a majority of Switch 1 titles. This ensures Nintendo’s vast library of popular IPs like The Legend of Zelda and Super Mario is accessible from day one.
- Star-Powered Launch Lineup
Launching alongside the console is Mario Kart World, the latest installment of Nintendo’s most successful franchise. With Mario Kart 8 Deluxe already boasting lifetime sales of 68+ million copies, this fresh iteration is primed for massive demand, ensuring strong early adoption of hardware.
- Renewed Focus on Digital & Subscription Sales
Nintendo’s increasing transition toward digital distribution and subscription services will boost recurring revenue streams. Despite an overall decline in digital sales YoY, Q4 2025 saw digital comprising 62.9% of software sales, signaling growth potential in this domain.
Can Nintendo Maintain Momentum?
The projected 15 million units for FY2026 could indeed be conservative. For perspective, the first-generation Switch sold 13.12 million units in its first year. Given the broader adoption of gaming as an entertainment medium and the wide-reaching appeal of Nintendo’s IPs, the Switch 2 has a strong chance to outperform.
Additionally, factors like technological advancements, global market expansion, and renewed hype will play a critical role in sustaining momentum once the initial frenzy subsides.
Why This Matters to Investors
For Nintendo investors, these projections signal significant opportunities for growth. Here’s why you should keep an eye on the Switch 2:
- Strong Margins on Software: Historical data shows Nintendo’s software arm drives profitability. Strong sales of exclusive IPs like Mario and Zelda will have an even more profound impact as digital adoption climbs.
- Recurring Revenue Models: Introduced subscription models and digital game purchases provide consistent revenue streams, further stabilizing Nintendo’s earnings.
- Market Leadership: Positioned as a leader in accessibility and IP-driven innovation, Nintendo continues to solidify its competitive advantage over major players like Sony and Microsoft.
The Road Ahead
The Nintendo Switch 2 isn’t just a testament to innovation and legacy. It’s a strategic move that could propel Nintendo further in the gaming industry. Analysts agree that with its existing market momentum, competitive pricing, and renowned game franchises, the Switch 2 is ready to carve its place among the gaming greats.
Get in on the Action
If you’re an investor considering Nintendo, or a gamer looking forward to the Switch 2, expect big things from this game-changing launch.
Nintendo will begin shipments for the Switch 2 and Mario Kart World bundle on June 5, 2025. Whether you’re a fan anticipating a great lineup or a stakeholder looking at robust financial growth, the signs point to an exciting year ahead.
